Cyprus, the EU and Brexit

As my family and friends know, I am not a night-owl. Far from it. I like to be in bed by around 10pm (earlier if possible) and asleep soon afterwards.

I am also not a fan of big crowds, or loud noises, or cheering, or fireworks. I keep away from most of the major festivals and other celebrations in Cyprus which are exuberant, full of colour and cheering.

But twelve years ago, I went with my family to the sea-front at midnight. There were more crowds than I had ever seen before; there was scarcely room to move. People were excited, and in Cyprus that means LOUD.

There was patriotic music too.

Our older son was playing in the municipal band at the time (though we couldn't get a photo that included him), so he had to be there.

But I didn't. I was tired, but this was one celebration that I could not miss. It was the entry of Cyprus into the European Union.

At midnight, the fireworks started:

We went home elated. Not just because life would become so much easier for us: now we had the right of abode in Cyprus, whereas previously we had to spend many hours applying for visas, supplying different paperwork every year. Not just because it meant the start of better relations with other European countries; not just because it would help Cyprus economically, and improve the standard of living (or so everyone had been told...).

No, there was a sense of rightness about it. At last we could feel that Cyprus was truly 'home', part of what we - in our forties at the time - saw as our cultural and ethnic heritage.

A little history for those who read this from across the Pond:

The UK went into the European Economic Community in 1973. I was a young teenager then. I didn't understand most of the implications. I was aware that there might be some new - possibly over-the-top - regulations, but I very much liked the metric/decimal system (adopted in 1971, prior to this). It's great deal easier to use than the old style imperial one with its variety of complex units.

The 1975 referendum saw a two-thirds majority of people in the UK wanting to stay within Europe, and thus when the EU was formed, the UK became part of it. Brits did not want to take up the common currency, which was an important part of the EU formation, so they insisted on an opt-out clause. That's why the UK still uses pounds sterling (I fail to understand why it matters, but that's another issue entirely).

The Single European Act of 1987 created "an area without frontiers in which the free movement of goods and persons, services and capital is ensured." 

I'm only just old enough to recall anything about life before the EEC. But for our children - indeed, for anyone under the age of about 40 - European membership is all they've ever known. They have European passports. They have had the freedom of travelling and working anywhere in Europe, without the need for visas. We have been able to choose to live anywhere in Europe; we can transport and buy goods from other European countries without paying extra taxes.

Then on Thursday last week, the UK voted - by a narrow margin - to leave the EU.

The exit (dubbed 'Brexit') hasn't happened yet, and is likely to take many months, perhaps two years or more, to take effect. But still, it left us in a state of shock.

We had been following the campaign, at least on the news websites and social media, and it appeared that there would be a majority (albeit small) voting to remain, at least for now.

But the polls were wrong. The results became clear first thing Friday morning: almost 52% of those who voted wanted to leave the EU.

On Friday and Saturday we tried to understand what had persuaded so many people to vote that way.

Unfortunately, as is the way with the media (both the normal and social forms) extremists came to the fore. We saw articles about hate crimes from a tiny minority in the UK who are xenophobic, who somehow thought that leaving the EU would mean that all immigrants could be sent away. An interview clip went viral, showing a man insisting that he had no problem with Europeans in the UK, but had voted 'leave' so that all the Middle Easterners and non-whites would have to leave.

Assuming it was not satire, he had missed the point entirely. I hope someone explained to him that it's only Europeans who will find it harder to come to the UK as they'll no longer have right of abode. It won't make any difference to the refugee intake; indeed, it may lead to MORE refugees from the Middle East and other parts of Asia, as the EU border controls will no longer be relevant to the UK.

There was also an outbreak of 'ageism', which was unpleasant; charts showed that younger people mostly voted to remain in the UK, older people (including my generation) were more likely to vote to leave. Statuses and articles were being shared in the initial anger and deep hurt that so many, particularly those in their teens and twenties, were (and are still) feeling.  No longer will they have the freedom of travel, study and work that we have enjoyed for the past thirty or so years.

Europeans - particularly Eastern Europeans from former Soviet countries - in the UK often take low-paid jobs that Brits don't want. It's true in Cyprus, too.  Some euro-sceptics twelve years ago insisted that crime would rise when Cyprus joined the EU, and there was, for a while, a slight increase in burglaries. But violent crime in Cyprus has remained at the lowest percentage in Europe.  There's xenophobia here, but it's nowhere near as damaging as it was even twenty years ago.  We Brits and other Europeans have had to be treated the same as Cypriots legally speaking. It hasn't always happened in practice, but we've had the law on our side.

This will no longer be the case.

On Saturday evening, after spending far too much time on social media, feeling confused and upset by the result, and even more by the angst and negative feelings that were arising, I wrote this on Facebook:

"I honestly thought I would accept whatever the result was; indeed, though I was shocked and a bit numb at first, that's what I said when I heard the news first thing yesterday morning. But then, through the morning, the numbness gave way to an immensely deep sadness, which I compared to a bereavement. And no, that's not hyperbole. It honestly felt that way. 

When we lived in the US in the early 1990s, we realised how very European we were. We love being part of this big continent, both geographically and politically. We were thrilled when Cyprus joined the EU 12 years ago, as it made life so much easier for us as ex-pats, and there were a lot of benefits to this little island too. Around 10% of the population are ex-pats, many of them Brits. 

So the EU, despite its faults and bureaucracy, has felt like an extra guardian for decades. Now we're going to have to give it up, and it is deeply distressing. Not just to me: I've seen dozens of other people express exactly the same thing. There's a sense of grieving; those who wanted to leave may find it difficult to comprehend, but we're in a period of mourning. 

Normal expressions of grief, according to experts, involve feeling distant from others, feeling as if nobody understands, shock, numbness and anger. I've seen a lot of these things floating about and inevitably those who are not mourning are feeling attacked. I don't think it's intended."

I took a break yesterday. I didn't read any news articles, although inevitably we discussed the issue, yet again, at home. We hope the implications for us won't be too bad; Cyprus has issued a statement that Brits living here are still welcome, and if we have to start applying for visas again every year, it's an annoying inconvenience, but in the scheme of global tragedy and suffering, not much of an issue.

But what still concerns me is the huge divide amongst thinking, intelligent adults around the UK. If we exclude the extremists and those who voted in ignorance of what the EU is, people have taken the same facts, presumably seen TV news and read media articles, removed the inevitable bias one way or another, attempted to ignore the spin... and yet have been about evenly divided with two such different conclusions.

Nobody knows what the future holds now. Legally speaking the Referendum doesn't mean an inevitable exit. The government has to ratify it (as they have had to do with all EU regulations) and will have to make an official request to the EU for the exit, if they decide to go ahead. Many are calling for a further Referendum, since the margin was so narrow in the recent one; EU law itself suggests that, for such a big change, there should be a rather bigger majority wanting to leave than just under 52% of those who voted.

There are extra legal complications in that although the UK is a country, it is made up of three separate countries and a province (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland). Is it the UK that is part of the EU, or the individual countries? The Scots, in the recent Referendum, voted overall to remain in the EU. So did the Northern Irish. Does this potentially mean the end of the UK, or can Scotland force the Referendum results to be overturned?

The British Prime Minister has resigned, and there does not appear to be any clear plan for the way forward. At present, the UK is still part of the EU, although the pound sterling has dropped from 1.3 euros last Wednesday to 1.2 euros today. Share values have dropped, too. Perhaps this will change - perhaps not.

My impression is that the majority of 'Leave' voters have a stronger feeling for the UK than they do for the EU, while the 'Remain' voters are the other way around. Patriotism is a strange thing, something I have never really understood until the past few days, when I realise that yes, I did - and do - have a very strong allegiance to Europe as a whole. I visit the UK because family and friends are there, but if they all moved to Cyprus, I would have no reason ever to go to my country of birth.

I understand the dislike of 'big' government. I'm all for smaller city councils, with people who care about their local schools and hospitals and so on, rather than all decisions coming from bureaucrats who have never been to the places concerned. But those still exist. As do the individual country governments and parliaments.

So what puzzles me most of all is the claim that the EU makes 'most' of the UK laws. The EU does not make any UK laws. I checked an independent fact site and it said that EU regulations do affect about 13% of UK laws, and in addition there are a significant number of trade and travel details related to EU requirements.

There are, of course, some regulations which countries have to follow in order to trade within the EU (such as extensive labelling of food products, and various health/hygiene standards) but if the UK wants to continue to trade with European countries, they'll have to continue following those rules. And when I look at specifics of EU regulations, either they don't actually affect the UK directly (such as fishing rights in Scandinavian countries, or the processing of olives...) or they're helpful in maintaining standards of living, equality for minorities, treatment of animals, importing of products from elsewhere, and so on.

Since Cyprus entered the EU, quite apart from making it easier for other Europeans to live here, we've seen increased quality of restaurants and other food preparation places, the first few years of the major task of putting sewers everywhere in the island, full European style labelling of all food products (essential for those with allergies and intolerances), a much wider range of goods available from other European countries, laws requiring motor bike helmets, requirements of MOTs for cars, ramps and other facilities for the disabled, and introduction of no-smoking policies in many public places.

That's just off the top of my head.

And while smokers might disagree, I cannot think of anything negative about any of those laws.

Perhaps the Cyprus government might have passed some of these laws without being in Europe, but somehow I doubt it. They still had to ratify them although some were a requirement of receiving EU funding, some are necessary for trading. People still get around them if they can, as they do with any law, European or otherwise. But as far as I can tell, with my admittedly limited perspective, being in the EU has been overwhelmingly positive for Cyprus.

So I'm now wondering: what specific laws in the UK, originated in Europe, do people object to....?

Cyprus banking crisis: an update (of sorts)

It's almost a week since we woke up to the news that the Cyprus government was planning to take a 'levy' on all deposits in banks, up to almost 10% for those with more than €100,000.  

It was a topic of discussion wherever we went; some people shrugged and said that those with large amounts of money could afford to give some to the government. Some felt that foreign investors, who benefit from low tax rates, should certainly contribute. But it all seemed very unfair on the ordinary Cypriots and ex-pats, with much smaller amounts in our accounts, having to fund the almost collapsing banks from our own pockets. It's not as if we make any interest these days - nothing at all on current accounts in Cyprus. 

Moreover, one of the main reasons that Cyprus is in such financial trouble is that it helped to bail out Greece - and the Greek people did not have to forfeit any kind of levy.  

By the time the vote was taken in parliament on Tuesday, the plan had been adjusted slightly, so that those of us with less than €20,000 in our accounts would be exempt from a levy.  However, there were protests going on around the island, and clearly the government were listening to the people... so the proposed levy was rejected.  Not even by a close vote: 19 people abstained, 26 voted against. Nobody was in favour. 

Cue lots of rejoicing....

... Except that this potentially pushes Cyprus into a much bigger problem.  The banks were supposed to open again on Wednesday, but three further days of bank holiday were declared. E-banking is frozen, to stop people moving their money abroad, or to different accounts. We can't even pay utility bills online at the moment. 

By Wednesday, Richard was getting concerned. I don't keep much cash in the house - I take some out at the start of each month to cover petrol and local grocery shopping, but we were over half-way through March, and I had about €60 left. He was worried that the banks might close indefinitely, and I did realise that we might have to pay our phone bill at the end of the month in cash.  We were safe from a levy - or so it seemed - but if, as now is possible, the banking system collapses entirely, would we lose everything?

So we went to the ATM at our bank, half-expecting a lengthy queue. There was one person who left as we walked up to it, and it dispensed money as normal. I really don't like carrying more than the minimum cash around, but it's certainly preferable to having none at all. 

Then we drove to Metro, and bought some things with long shelf-life - such as cat litter, and toilet rolls, and instant coffee.  We used our debit card to pay, and it was accepted without problem.

Was the press over-reacting, we wondered? Were the Cypriots and ex-pats in general assuming everything would be all right in the end? Was this a rational decision, or head-in-the-sand?  The banks were closed to stop huge withdrawals of money which could lead to disaster, but it seemed a bit strange that the population were not queuing up to take at least a few hundred euros of their money out, to have safe.  Should the banks collapse, or indeed if Cyprus decides to leave the eurozone, all money might indeed be forfeit, despite the official EU guarantee of safety for all deposits up to €100,000. 

Yesterday - Thursday - Richard was at some meetings in Limassol. He said that in the afternoon he noticed long queues at ATMs, particularly those of Laiki Bank, the one reputed to be nearest to collapsing. We heard from friends that they were unable to take money from an ATM, and that while their debit card was accepted in two shops, it was refused at a third. We read stories of petrol stations only accepting cash.  It seemed that there was, after all, some widespread panic.  

Meanwhile the government tried to come up with further plans to raise the five billion euros needed if the country is to receive EU support for a further ten billion. The amounts seem  phenomenal, although it did occur to me that with 750 million people in Europe altogether, just €10 per person would raise 7.5 billion.  And would be a lot fairer than heavy levies on the people of this tiny island (whose population is less than one million). 

This morning we drove down to the Post Office so I could mail some cards, and also check for an expected large parcel (which had, indeed, arrived).  As I came out, I saw that there was a small queue at the Laiki Bank ATM.  I've fuzzed out the faces, but this is a general idea of what we saw... and those prominent 'stop' signs look quite dramatic! 

Evidently people were getting cash. If Cyprus switches to the Cyprus Pound, it will probably be devalued against the euro, meaning that hard currency euros are worth more, relatively speaking. Not that I'm a banker or any kind of economist.

What will happen?  I wouldn't want to hazard a guess.  One BBC correspondent has explained some of the difficult choices that must be made.  I don't think anyone wants Cyprus to leave the eurozone, or for the banking system to collapse entirely.  I remain cautiously optimistic that some solution will be found - that, at tonight's meeting, a compromise of some sort will be found. I'm a great believer in negotiation and finding mutually acceptable solutions to problems. In this case it's impossible to please everyone; money is such a divisive subject. 

In the meantime, I'm keeping half an eye on the live update feeds from both The Telegraph and The Guardian (two UK newspapers).  The final decision should be made at a meeting this evening.....

Maybe. 

Empty shops in Cyprus

I'm no economist, but it's pretty clear that small businesses in Cyprus are suffering.  For the past year or so, we've seen empty shops along some of the main streets, where there used to be thriving businesses. It's not unusual for shops to change hands, but in the fifteen years since we came here, this is the first time we've seen increasing numbers of former shops just standing empty.

More recently this has started happening locally, to small shops which used to serve the neighbouring houses.  On my return from a recent early morning walk I decided to photograph some of them. I saw this one:

And this one:

As I approached our favourite Achna froutaria (which is still thriving, thankfully) I also remembered this one, a former take-away food place, which has been empty for some months now:

Next door stood this: a mini-market which changed hands perhaps nine months ago, but has evidently been in its last throes for a while now, selling off random products at very cheap prices.  It's now closed down entirely:

What actually first triggered my surprise about the number of empty shops locally was seeing that the small froutaria, just a couple of streets away from us, had closed a couple of weeks ago. That was quite a shock, as it always seemed to get a fair bit of custom; I didn't use it myself, most of the time, as I like Achna so much better - but just occasionally I would pop there for something quick.

However, by the time I got around to taking a photo, someone else had taken over the building. It looks like another mini-market, although it's hard to tell:

Reports in the Cyprus Mail suggest that more and more families are now struggling to survive in Cyprus,  Some are going without electricity for weeks at a time, and relying on charitable organisations for clothing and food. Benefits/welfare are not easy to get here, and the system was undoubtedly flawed, but recent reforms have made it even more difficult for those struggling the most.  Another report stated that, as in the rest of Europe, around 16% of the population are living below the official poverty line, which is a little over €10,000 per year.  

Cyprus used to be an inexpensive, friendly place to live. Electronic and other luxury goods were expensive compared to the UK or the US, but the basic cost of living was low, and it was entirely possible to live economically on around that level, particularly for those (the majority of Cypriots) who own their own home, and are thus not paying any rent.

But electricity and other utility costs have skyrocketed, and while fruit and vegetables are still good value in season, other food and grocery items have become far more expensive, to the extent that when we visit the UK we're now surprised at how cheap everything looks - rather the reverse of the situation ten years ago.  Even petrol costs have risen, so that from being one of the cheapest in Europe, Cyprus petrol is now almost as expensive as the highly-taxed fuel in the UK. 

We hear of ex-pats, often retirees, being forced to return to their own countries as it's too expensive to live here now.  There are still wealthy tourists from Eastern Europe, and some from the UK and other Western European countries who can afford to pay the extra for guaranteed sunshine and relative safety. But it's no longer a good value holiday place, and unless something changes, it's going to spiral downhill faster and faster.

Thus ends the nearest to a political post that I'm ever likely to write... 

Cyprus has a new president

I wrote a week ago about the first round of the Cyprus presidential elections.

Today was part two. Not that anyone would necessarily notice - there were no vans driving around with loudspeakers reminding people to vote, no posters, no flags... really, it was all very civilised.

According to the BBC news site, the left-wing candidate, Mr Demetris Christofias has won.

Mr Christofias is head of the Communist party. That doesn't mean that Cyprus will be a Communist country - certainly not Marxist, as much of Eastern Europe used to be. But there will be a Communist influence, as there was when we first arrived. Albeit fairly capitalist in philosophy, and strongly Greek Orthodox Christian in belief. Cyprus politics are very complicated...

The new President is eager to continue negotiations towards reuniting the island. But then, so was the right-wing candidate who was standing against him today.

Presidential elections in Cyprus

The whole world seems to know - already - that there will be Presidential elections in the USA later in this year. I wonder how many are aware that yesterday was the first round of Presidential elections for Cyprus. Of course, Cyprus is just a tiny country at the far end of the Mediterranean, but it's well-placed, near the borders of Europe, Asia and Africa, and is sometimes considered to be significant in world affairs.

These elections have not affected us in the slightest, at least so far. I think I saw one poster for one of the candidates (I've no idea which) but that's about all. It doesn't seem to be a main topic of conversation for most people. Since the voting was on Sunday, they didn't even have to close the schools for polling stations. I didn't even know that election day was yesterday until I saw an article on the BBC news site.

Politics in Cyprus is rather complex. To say the least. For one thing, it's tied in strongly with the Greek Orthodox Church (around 95% of people claim allegiance to it, although there is inevitably a lot of nominalism). Some priests tell their congregations how they should vote. They have significant influence over the politics of the island in general. For a clear (though lengthy) understanding of the influences in Cyprus politics in the past fifty years or so, see 'Postwar Nationalism in Cyprus'.

For yesterday's elections, there were several candidates, but it was predicted that only three of them would have significant percentages of the vote. That's exactly what happened. The BBC has a summary of the results. They really were remarkably close - each of the three, including the current President (Mr Papodopoulos) getting around a third of the vote.

So there will be another election next Sunday, which will be just between the top two - not including Mr Papodopoulos, who was slightly behind the others. If any of them had received at least 51% of the vote, he would have been the President outright with no need for a second election - but nobody thought that would happen.

The two remaining candidates appear to be extreme opposites, as far as party politics goes. Mr Kasoulides is a member of the right-wing DISY party, while Mr Christofias is the head of the Communist party. Not that Cyprus Communism bears much resemblance to the Marxism of some of the Eastern European countries a few years ago. What's odd is that both these men are keen to reunite Cyprus - and seem to have similar ideas of how to go about it. I've no idea what their other policies are - I don't suppose most of the population do, either. Reunification seems to be the one issue on their minds. The Europe Herald Tribune gives a little more information about the three men who were the main rivals yesterday.

Will life change if Cyprus gains either a Communist or a right-wing President? I doubt it. Most people here seem to be keen on Communism as a principle, capitalism as a practice, and Greek Orthodoxy as a tradition. Oddly enough, these three rather different ideologies seem to live reasonably comfortably alongside each other. But then, this IS Cyprus!